Saudi Demographic Economics: Population Aging and Drivers of Declining Fertility Rates

Date: 2025-12-11
Hamza Alshamy

For the first time in history, in 2018, the number of people aged 65 and older surpassed those 5 years and younger (United Nations, 2019b). Longer life expectancy due to healthcare advancements combined with a declining birth rate are leading the world towards population aging. Though population aging is a global trend, both its underlying circumstances and its pace differ from one country to another. For example, throughout the 60s until the early 80s, the fertility rate in Saudi Arabia averaged around seven children per woman, significantly higher than the world average of four. By 2022, the fertility rate in the Kingdom had declined to the replacement-level fertility of 2.1 children per woman. The drastic decrease in fertility rates and the catch-up growth in healthcare technology may lead to a sudden demographic shift as opposed to a gradual continuous shift, which makes Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries that possess similar characteristics unique case studies. The goal of this paper is to explore one key component of population aging in Saudi Arabia: the drivers behind its declining fertility rates. In particular, the paper examines four primary factors for this decline—urbanization, economic incentives, financial considerations, and women’s changing role in the Kingdom—before concluding with an assessment of whether these declining fertility rates are of concern.